We have all noticed the media has been less than optimistic lately. The fact is, naysayers have been forecasting the demise of the Vancouver real estate market for decades and despite their theories, the real estate market in Vancouver is still alive and well. Between the experts and the press it's hard not to buy into the hype. Experts can quote as many statistics as they like and most people will simply glaze over, misinterpret the message and focus on the worst case scenario. Bad news sells better than good and fear is easier to sell than optimism.
Some experts are "predicting a near collapse in MLS condominium sales across most of Metro Vancouver this year, with sales falling by as much as 50 per cent" Unfortunately most people will read this to mean prices are going to drop 50%. Consider we have already adjusted 10-12% for most properties and perhaps 20% on some luxury properties over the past 18 months from what was an overly inflated market to begin with.
Some experts are "predicting a near collapse in MLS condominium sales across most of Metro Vancouver this year, with sales falling by as much as 50 per cent" Unfortunately most people will read this to mean prices are going to drop 50%. Consider we have already adjusted 10-12% for most properties and perhaps 20% on some luxury properties over the past 18 months from what was an overly inflated market to begin with.
The ultimate crystal ball question: How will the market perform over the next few months or years? It's anybody's guess. If you are trying to guess when the top or bottom will be, good luck. It's an educated guess at best and everyone's an expert. The best we can do is get a sense of which direction the market is going. The answer will differ depending on whether you're talking about houses, townhouses, or condos and whether we are talking Westside or Whiterock.
What you do can only be decided by you based on what is the best strategy for your situation. Are you a first time buyer, seller, investor, downsizing, upsizing? Are you cashing in your chips or just getting started?
Let's all take a step back and look at the graph of average prices and actual values over the past 15 years and we're still doing very well. Aside from the wild fluctuations in the past five years, the Vancouver market has about an 10 year cycle.
Our open door policy has sent our real estate prices through the roof. External influences have pushed our market up and down in the past. 1996-1997 was a sellers market as Hong Kong buyers flocked to Vancouver and then ran back in 1998 when they realized China taking over wasn't such a big deal after all.
The buyers market did not last long. Prices went straight up from 1999-2008. We were due for a correction anyway but it was a little more abrupt as the sub-prime meltdown occurred to big brother down south.
2008-2009 was the quickest turn around we have seen. Inventory had dropped by as much as 45% as sellers took their homes off the market and waited for things to bounce back. Pent up demand for 10 months and a tiny bit of positive press and all the buyers jumped in at the same time, with a depleted inventory, and pushed the market higher than ever before.
Our open door policy has sent our real estate prices through the roof. External influences have pushed our market up and down in the past. 1996-1997 was a sellers market as Hong Kong buyers flocked to Vancouver and then ran back in 1998 when they realized China taking over wasn't such a big deal after all.
The buyers market did not last long. Prices went straight up from 1999-2008. We were due for a correction anyway but it was a little more abrupt as the sub-prime meltdown occurred to big brother down south.
2008-2009 was the quickest turn around we have seen. Inventory had dropped by as much as 45% as sellers took their homes off the market and waited for things to bounce back. Pent up demand for 10 months and a tiny bit of positive press and all the buyers jumped in at the same time, with a depleted inventory, and pushed the market higher than ever before.
Now we're 'below the 10 year average'. There has been nothing average about the past 10 years in Vancouver real estate.
We need a balanced number of buyers and sellers to create a normal market. Vancouver is not really a normal market. As we are the #1 best city in the world to live, demand far exceeds supply, but will ebb and flow like any other product creating opportune moments to sell or buy. Many sellers and buyers unfortunately have a herd mentality for the most part and will wait too long to buy or rush to list their house once we have passed the peak.
Are you waiting for prices to go back up again and cash out, you may be want to consider how a federal election and a possible new government may affect prices. Potential Foreign Investment regulations would impact values significantly. Both of these factors would make that low-ball offer you turned down last year look much more appealing.
When everyone you know says it not the right time to buy....that's the right time to buy. All your advisors will err on the side of caution and say you better wait it out. Don't do anything because they don't want you to blame them.
Remember, it's all quite simple. Get in the market and just stay in the market. Sell high, buy low. Nice idea but how do you do that with your own principal residence? To sell high, rent and wait to buy trying to time the bottom of the market is a big risk to take. Most will wait too long and say..." I shoulda bought last Spring." The time lag is way too long and this isn't the stock market. Sell and buy within a short enough time frame and you are not exposed the risk that prices go up again, which they will.
Let us show you how to take advantage of current market conditions. We can help you assess your real estate portfolio. You decide your risk tolerance level and we can help you formulate a plan accordingly.
Remember, it's all quite simple. Get in the market and just stay in the market. Sell high, buy low. Nice idea but how do you do that with your own principal residence? To sell high, rent and wait to buy trying to time the bottom of the market is a big risk to take. Most will wait too long and say..." I shoulda bought last Spring." The time lag is way too long and this isn't the stock market. Sell and buy within a short enough time frame and you are not exposed the risk that prices go up again, which they will.
Let us show you how to take advantage of current market conditions. We can help you assess your real estate portfolio. You decide your risk tolerance level and we can help you formulate a plan accordingly.
Prices go down, prices go up. It's all relative.
