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Market Update


Blog by Tony Hepburn | January 28th, 2008


While the stock markets tumbled another 4.75% the other day it’s safe to say there was panic amongst investors worldwide. Interesting considering the perspective on the real estate market in Vancouver & BC in general is just the reverse.

 

What better place to invest than in real estate. Especially when you consider the BC real estate market…particularly Vancouver .

 

Our economy is healthy and for those disenchanted with the stock market perhaps it’s time to buy some real estate. There are several strong indicators that our market will continue to prosper. 2008 economic growth is forecast at roughly 3.5.%. The national average is about 2.8%. Unemployment sits currently at 4.1%, almost nil. We have created 36,000 new jobs recently and have near 50,000 in net migration to boot. Yes perhaps job creation may be skewed slighty with many infrastructure projects these, days, but even so, the latest announcement in transit related projects will avert a potential post Olympic hangover. The 2010 Olympics will contribute to an additional 1% growth per year.

 

Greater Vancouver house prices grew an average of 11% last year & the outlook for 2008 is 9% according to CMHC figures. Our real estate market has gone from red hot to hot. Still very much a sellers market.

 

How does our market hold up in light of such turmoil next door to the south? There are significant fundamental differences between the US & Canadian real estate markets. First of all we don’t have a sub-prime market; near prime some might say, but this only represents about 2% of mortgages vs. a minimum 10% in the US . Some say the US sub-prime market is closer to 20% or 30%. A scary thought. What exactly did they think would happen?  

 

We do not have ARM’s Adujustable Rate Mortgage’s which have escalating payments with introductory teaser rates and the lure of low monthly payments at first. In BC, the high ratio mortgage is not actually that common; about 5%-10% of mortgages. It’s available of course, but more than 2/3 of buyers are putting down 15% -25% or more.

 

We have less speculative activity overall and the default rate on mortgages is almost five times higher in the US at 9%. Ours is 2%.

 

Vancouver ’s real estate market is strong & healthy with a strong economic base. Demand continues of outpace supply in what is primarily a re-sale market. A GST reduction to 5% helps new home buyers but not re-sale home buyers. Perhaps we’ll get a break on the PTT (Property Transfer Tax)….well, we can hope.